Missouri football vs Florida prediction, odds and injury report 2026

No. 8 Florida heads to Columbia with a perfect 4-0 record and an offense that has been nearly impossible to slow down.

The Gators have scored at least 44 points in every game this season, including a dominant 52-28 win over No. 4 Ole Miss.

Now Florida faces No. 25 Missouri, a team coming off its first loss of the season and looking for answers on defense.

Missouri enters the matchup at 3-1 overall and 0-1 in SEC play after falling 31-24 at Mississippi State. The Tigers led entering the fourth quarter before Mississippi State scored 14 unanswered points.

That makes Saturday’s matchup a significant test for both teams.

Missouri football vs Florida prediction, odds and injury report 2026: Game details

• Date: Saturday, Oct. 3
• Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. CT
• TV: ABC
• Streaming: Fubo
• Location: Memorial Stadium, Columbia, Missouri
• Betting line: Missouri +5.5
• Over/under: 56.5 points

Missouri football vs Florida prediction, odds and injury report 2026: Kickoff time and location

Florida and Missouri are scheduled to kick off at 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday at Memorial Stadium in Columbia.

The matchup will be Missouri’s homecoming game.

Missouri has already sold out its single-game ticket allotment for the contest, adding another layer to what should be a major SEC atmosphere.

Missouri football vs Florida prediction, odds and injury report 2026: TV channel and streaming

The game will be televised nationally on ABC.

Fans looking to stream the matchup can use Fubo.

Missouri football vs Florida prediction, odds and injury report 2026: Betting odds

Missouri enters the game as a 5.5-point home underdog.

The current over/under is set at 56.5 points.

Those numbers reflect a matchup between a Florida offense that has consistently produced explosive plays and a Missouri team trying to rebound from its first loss.

Missouri football vs Florida prediction, odds and injury report 2026: Missouri injuries

Missouri could have several availability concerns heading into Saturday.

Running back Ahmad Hardy remains doubtful as he continues recovering from an offseason gunshot wound to his upper leg.

Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz previously said Hardy would need two full weeks of practice before returning to game action. There has been no indication that Hardy has returned to practice.

The Tigers are already without Malae Fonoti, who suffered a non-contact ACL injury in Week 1 and has been ruled out for the season.

Missouri also has questions along the defensive line.

Darris Smith missed the Mississippi State game with an ankle injury, while Langden Kitchen left that game in the first half after suffering a lower-body injury.

Drinkwitz said after the Mississippi State loss that he did not yet know Kitchen’s status.

Reserve safety JaDon Blair and tight end Gavin Hoffman were also listed as out for the Mississippi State game.

Missouri’s SEC availability reports will provide additional updates throughout the week.

Missouri football vs Florida prediction, odds and injury report 2026: Jadan Baugh vs Missouri’s defense

One of the biggest matchups will come in the trenches.

Florida running back Jadan Baugh has emerged as one of the SEC’s most productive offensive players. Through four games, he leads the conference with 600 rushing yards while averaging 7.2 yards per carry.

That creates a difficult challenge for Missouri.

The Tigers struggled with tackling against Mississippi State, and their defensive issues become even more concerning against a Florida offense built to punish missed assignments.

If Missouri cannot consistently stop the run, Florida could control the game on the ground and force the Tigers to commit extra defenders to the box.

That could create even more opportunities for the Gators’ passing game.

Missouri football vs Florida prediction, odds and injury report 2026: Florida’s explosive passing attack

Baugh is only one part of the problem for Missouri.

Florida’s wide receivers have produced consistently through the opening month of the season, giving the Gators multiple ways to attack a defense.

The Tigers have also allowed explosive plays this season.

That combination could be dangerous against Florida.

If Missouri brings additional defenders toward Baugh, Florida can attack one-on-one matchups outside. If the Tigers stay lighter in the box, Baugh has the opportunity to create another big game on the ground.

Missouri football vs Florida prediction, odds and injury report 2026: Can Missouri fix its tackling?

Missouri’s tackling will be one of the clearest indicators of how this game unfolds.

The Tigers reportedly entered the week with the SEC’s third-lowest tackling grade on PFF, averaging 13.5 missed tackles per game.

That is a major concern against Florida.

The Gators have already shown they can turn small openings into explosive gains. Missed tackles against Baugh or Florida’s receivers could quickly turn manageable plays into touchdowns.

Missouri cannot afford another defensive performance filled with missed opportunities.

Missouri football vs Florida prediction, odds and injury report 2026: Biggest storylines

Missouri football vs Florida prediction, odds and injury report 2026: Can Missouri respond after the Mississippi State loss?

Missouri’s season is not defined by one loss, but the response matters.

The Tigers return home for consecutive games against Florida and Texas A&M.

That gives Missouri an opportunity to change the direction of its season.

But the schedule becomes increasingly difficult after those games, with Ole Miss, Texas and Georgia still ahead.

A second straight setback would put even more pressure on the Tigers.

Missouri football vs Florida prediction, odds and injury report 2026: How will Missouri contain Jadan Baugh?

Stopping Baugh has to be near the top of Missouri’s defensive game plan.

Florida has consistently moved the football this season, and Baugh gives the Gators a physical presence capable of controlling the line of scrimmage.

Missouri’s ability to tackle in space and limit early-down rushing success could determine how often the Tigers are forced into unfavorable situations.

Missouri football vs Florida prediction, odds and injury report 2026: Which injuries could change the matchup?

Hardy’s availability remains one of Missouri’s biggest questions.

The defensive end situation could be even more important.

If Smith and Kitchen cannot return, Missouri could enter the game short-handed at a position it needs to win against Florida’s offensive line.

The Tigers will have additional clarity as their availability reports are released later in the week.

Missouri football vs Florida prediction, odds and injury report 2026: Final outlook

Florida enters Columbia with an unbeaten record, a high-scoring offense and significant momentum after its win over Ole Miss.

Missouri has home-field advantage but must quickly correct the defensive problems that surfaced against Mississippi State.

The Tigers’ biggest challenge is obvious: contain Baugh, limit explosive plays and find a way to make Florida work for every possession.

If Missouri cannot clean up its tackling, Florida has enough offensive firepower to take advantage.

Missouri football vs Florida prediction, odds and injury report 2026 will ultimately come down to whether the Tigers can slow down an offense that has yet to score fewer than 44 points this season.