Florida’s offense went quiet against Missouri, and its defense did not cover for it. Now the 16th-ranked Gators (4-1) host a South Carolina team that has lost three straight SEC games but can still put up points. The Gamecocks are 2-3 overall. Kickoff is Saturday, Oct. 10, at 12:45 p.m. ET on the SEC Network from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
Florida is a 12.5-point favorite on DraftKings, with the total set at 62.5. That number tells you what the market expects: neither side stops anybody.
Baugh’s bad day, and what Sumrall said about it
Jadan Baugh carried 12 times for 13 yards against Missouri. Florida scored only 17 points, and the Gators’ 62 combined points in that game imply Missouri put up 45. That is a rough afternoon for a back who has 95 carries for 613 yards and 11 touchdowns this season, plus five catches for 35 yards.
Baugh texted coach Jon Sumrall on Sunday to apologize for not being his best, according to Sumrall, as relayed by reporter Scott Carter. Sumrall called it a team effort and said the Gators didn’t help Baugh much either. He also said there are no health concerns.
That last part matters. A one-game collapse with no injury attached is usually a game-flow and blocking problem, not a trend. Last season Baugh ran for 1,170 yards and eight scores, and he is already well past the touchdown total.
His Heisman odds fell from +1200 to +8000 after the loss. That says more about how fast the market moves than about Baugh. It also means a big game Saturday carries real weight for his case.
Why this is a favorable spot for the run game
South Carolina’s defense ranks 93rd nationally in adjusted EPA per play, 108th in defensive success rate and 90th in EPA per rush. That is a defense that has struggled to hold up against the run.
Florida doesn’t need to reinvent anything. Get Baugh early touches, stay committed to the run even if the Gamecocks score, and let play-action work off a ground game that is finally moving. The Gators’ offense is second nationally in adjusted EPA per play and third in EPA per pass, so the passing game is not the problem. The Missouri loss looks more like one lopsided day than a real offensive flaw.
The other side of the ball is the real concern
Florida’s offensive numbers are elite. Its defensive numbers are not.
| Unit | Florida | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Offense, adjusted EPA/play | 2nd | 3rd |
| Defense, adjusted EPA/play | 103rd | 93rd |
| Defense, success rate | 125th | 108th |
| Defense, 3rd/4th down success | 127th | Outside top 90 |
Florida ranks 127th in third- and fourth-down success rate on defense. That means the Gators have had trouble getting off the field, which hands opposing offenses extra snaps and extra chances at explosive plays.
South Carolina has a quarterback who can exploit that. LaNorris Sellers leads an offense that ranks third nationally in adjusted EPA per play, with top-50 marks in both EPA per pass and EPA per rush. The Gamecocks have scored exactly 34 points in two of their three SEC games. In those three games, they and their opponents combined for 75, 67 and 69 points.
Despite the 0-3 SEC start, this is not a team that has been overmatched on offense. Its problems have been finishing games and getting stops. South Carolina also blew a lead to Kentucky in Week 5.
What the scoreboard history suggests
The scoring trends are lopsided in a way that matters for the total:
- Florida has scored at least 44 points in every win this season.
- The Gators have combined for more than 62.5 points in three of five games, including two of their three SEC games.
- The Missouri loss came in at 62 combined points, just under this week’s number.
- South Carolina’s three SEC games have all topped 62 combined points.
None of that guarantees a shootout. But if South Carolina keeps pace for even a half, Florida’s defense will be under pressure to make a few key stops, and its numbers suggest it may struggle to.
Why the stakes are bigger than a 12.5-point spread
Florida’s best win so far came against Ole Miss in Week 4. The Gators want to show they belong in the SEC title conversation and the College Football Playoff picture in 2026. A second straight loss, especially to a team that is 0-3 in conference play, would damage that case quickly.
South Carolina, meanwhile, is effectively out of the playoff conversation. That can cut two ways. The Gamecocks have little to protect, which can make a team loose and dangerous. But they have also lost close, late, and in similar ways three weeks in a row.
For Sumrall, the key decisions are simple on paper. Feed Baugh, protect the offense’s rhythm, and find some way to improve on third down defensively. The Gators likely win a track meet because their offense is stronger, but that is a thinner margin than a 12.5-point spread suggests.
If Baugh runs the way his season numbers say he can, and Florida’s defense gets even a few more stops than usual, this Week 6 matchup should help the Gators steady themselves. If not, the Florida vs. South Carolina Week 6 preview may be remembered for how much it exposed about a team with a great offense and a defense still searching for answers.
FAQ
When is Florida vs. South Carolina?
Saturday, Oct. 10, at 12:45 p.m. ET on the SEC Network, at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
What are the odds for Florida vs. South Carolina?
On DraftKings, Florida is a 12.5-point favorite, with moneylines of Florida -550 and South Carolina +410. The total is 62.5.
Is Jadan Baugh injured?
No. Sumrall said there are no health concerns for Baugh after the Missouri loss.
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