The South Carolina women’s basketball NCAA bracketology 2026 projection still paints a powerful postseason picture for the Gamecocks—even after their stumble in the SEC championship game.
The roar inside the arena Sunday night slowly faded as Texas celebrated a 78–61 victory over South Carolina in the SEC Tournament final. Yet despite the setback, the national outlook for the Gamecocks remains remarkably strong. With Selection Sunday only days away, analysts still believe South Carolina sits firmly among the nation’s elite.
According to ESPN bracketologist Charlie Creme, the Gamecocks remain projected as one of the four No. 1 seeds in the upcoming NCAA Women’s Tournament.
South Carolina’s Current NCAA Tournament Projection
Even with the loss to Texas, South Carolina still holds an impressive national résumé.
In ESPN’s latest bracket projection:
- South Carolina: No. 1 seed (4th overall)
- UConn: No. 1 overall seed
- UCLA: No. 2 overall
- Texas: No. 3 overall
The SEC championship result caused a small shuffle at the top. Texas jumped ahead in the rankings, but South Carolina maintained its spot among the top seeds.
If this projection holds, the Gamecocks would host the first two tournament rounds in Columbia, giving them a familiar home-court environment—an advantage that has often fueled deep postseason runs.
You can view ESPN’s latest bracketology projections here:
https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/30423107/ncaa-women-bracketology-2026-women-college-basketball-projections
Potential Tournament Path for the Gamecocks
If the tournament began today, South Carolina’s opening path would look manageable on paper.
First Round
South Carolina vs. High Point (No. 16 seed)
High Point enters the tournament as the Big South champion with a strong 27–5 record. While the Panthers are no pushovers, history suggests No. 1 seeds typically control this matchup.
Second Round
Winner of:
- Oklahoma State (No. 8 seed)
- Southern Cal (No. 9 seed)
Both teams bring different challenges:
- Oklahoma State finished 23–9 but suffered a surprising exit in the Big 12 tournament.
- Southern Cal struggled to consistency, ending the season 17–13.
South Carolina already defeated Southern Cal 69–52 earlier this season, a result that could offer confidence if the teams meet again.
Familiar Opponents Lurking in the Region
While the opening rounds may appear favorable, the deeper tournament path features several familiar programs.
Possible Sweet 16 Opponents
Two teams with prior history against South Carolina could emerge:
- North Carolina (No. 5 seed)
- Record: 26–7
- Eliminated in the ACC semifinal
- Previously lost to South Carolina in a preseason exhibition.
- Alabama (No. 6 seed)
- Record: 23–10
- South Carolina defeated the Crimson Tide twice during the regular season.
Either matchup would add emotional intensity to the Sweet 16 stage.
Elite Eight Threats
If South Carolina advances further, the competition ramps up dramatically.
The biggest potential Elite Eight matchups include:
- Iowa (No. 2 seed)
- TCU (No. 3 seed)
- Minnesota (No. 4 seed)
Minnesota’s Quiet Rise
Minnesota’s season may be one of the tournament’s surprise stories. The Golden Gophers began the year projected as an 11-seed but surged late, finishing 22–8 and climbing into hosting territory.
They could potentially clash with North Carolina in the Round of 32 before advancing to face South Carolina.
Iowa and TCU’s Conference Final Losses
Both Iowa and TCU reached their conference championship games but came up short:
- Iowa suffered a 96–45 blowout loss to UCLA
- TCU fell 62–53 to West Virginia
Either team, however, still possesses enough firepower to challenge a No. 1 seed if momentum swings their way.
The Sacramento Regional Outlook
ESPN’s latest projection places South Carolina in Sacramento Region 4.
If the Gamecocks reach the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight, they would travel west for those games. It’s a shift from earlier projections that had them assigned to the Fort Worth regional.
This change came after Texas claimed the SEC tournament title and took the No. 1 seed in that bracket.
The Final Four Picture
Should South Carolina navigate the regional rounds successfully, a sixth straight Final Four appearance could await.
Their projected opponent would come from the Fort Worth Region, which currently appears dominated by one powerhouse program.
UConn: The Team to Beat
UConn sits at 33–0, and their dominance has been staggering.
The Huskies’ numbers are eye-opening:
- Average scoring margin: 38.4 points
- Only one close game all season — a 72–69 win over Michigan in November.
That razor-thin result shows Michigan could be one of the few teams capable of pushing the Huskies deep into a competitive game.
Other Final Four Contenders
Two teams could threaten UConn’s path:
- Vanderbilt (No. 2 seed)
- Record: 27–4
- Having one of the program’s best seasons in years.
- Michigan (No. 3 seed)
- Record: 25–6
- The only team to truly challenge UConn this season.
If South Carolina and UConn both reach the Final Four, it would set up one of the most anticipated matchups of the entire tournament.
Countdown to Selection Sunday
All speculation will soon give way to reality.
The official NCAA Women’s Tournament bracket reveal will take place:
- Selection Sunday
- 8 p.m. ET
- Broadcast on ESPN
More details on the championship week schedule and automatic bids can be found here:
https://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/story/_/id/47740531/womens-college-basketball-2026-champ-week-tournament-brackets-schedule-sites-bids
As conference tournaments wrap up across the country, the final puzzle pieces are falling into place.
Final Thoughts
Despite the SEC championship loss, the South Carolina women’s basketball NCAA bracketology 2026 projection still places the Gamecocks among the tournament’s most dangerous teams.
With a No. 1 seed likely, home-court advantage in the opening rounds, and a roster battle-tested under pressure, South Carolina remains firmly positioned for another deep March run.
And if history repeats itself, the road to the national title may once again pass through Columbia before stretching all the way to the Final Four.
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